03-22-2022 Agenda Packet EDC4:00 PM
4:01 PM
4:03 PM 3. Consent Agenda
a. January 25, 2022 EDC and PCBIC Planning Session Minutes
b. February 22, 2022 Meeting Minutes
Motion
4:05 PM 4. Ethics Review
4:35 PM 5. Business Survey Update
4:40 PM 6. Director's Report
4:45 PM Led By Chairman Allen
4:50 PM
4:55 PM
4:55 PM
Motion:
7. Member and Ex Officio Comments
Ms. Sherry Wilborn, ED Director
Request Motion to Approve
Mr. G. Phillip Allen, Chairman
1. Welcome
2. Invocation
Mr. G. Phillip Allen, Chairman
Mr. Dale Reynolds, Vice Chairman
Mr. Ellis Hankins, Person County Attorney
Mr. Michael Thibault, ED Asst. Director
Person County Economic Development Commission
Meeting Location: Person County Economic Development Board Room
Tuesday, March 22, 2022
4:00 p.m.
Agenda
303 S. Morgan St.
Request Motion to Adjourn
Mr. G. Phillip Allen, Chairman
Mr. G. Phillip Allen, Chairman
10. Adjournment Mr. G. Phillip Allen, Chairman
8. Chairman's Report
9. Next Meeting -April 26, 2022 4:00 p.m. Person County EDC Board
Room 303 S. Morgan St. Roxboro, NC
EDC and PCBIC Planning Session Minutes for January 25, 2022
Minutes of the PCEDC and PCBIC Planning Session
Kirby Cultural Arts Complex
213 North Main St., Roxboro, NC 27573
January 25, 2022
Voting Board Members Present:
Mr. Phillip Allen-Chairman Mr. Kenneth Perry
The Honorable Merilyn Newell-Secretary Mr. Donald Long
Mr. Dale Reynolds-Vice Chairman The Honorable Gordon Powell
Mr. Danny Talbert Mr. Ernie Wood
Ex Officios Present:
Mr. Brooks Lockhart, City Manager Ms. Heidi York, County Manager
Dr. Claudia Berryhill, Agricultural Representative Dr. Rodney Peterson, PCS Superintendent
Dr. Pamela Senegal, PCC Representative
ED Staff Present: Others Present:
Ms. Sherry Wilborn, ED Director Mr. George Willoughby
Ms. Brandy Lynch, ED Senior Mr. Tommy Warren, City of Roxboro
Administrative Support Mr. Andy Oakley, City of Roxboro
(Minutes) The Honorable PJ Gentry
Mr. Ted Abernathy, Economic Leadership
Mr. John Nelms, Duke Energy
Mr. Blake Hall, Timmons Group
Mr. Nate Groover, Timmons Group
Mr. Joe Hines, Timmons Group
Ms. Sallie Vaughn, Person County GIS
Welcome and Introductions:
1. At 12: 00 pm, Chairman Allen called the meeting to order. Sherry Wilborn begins with
introductions.
Sherry Wilborn’s presentation will be included in the minutes.
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EDC and PCBIC Planning Session Minutes for January 25, 2022
2019 Adopted Strategic Plan Review
2. Ms. Wilborn reviews the highlights of the 2018 SWOT Analysis and 2019 Strategic Plan.,
explaining that only after seven months since the inception of the Strategic Plan the Covid
Pandemic hit. Followed by Person County’s cyber-attack and three extensive public records
requests in a year’s time, the plan continued on. Wilborn reviews the key areas of focus and
accomplishments of the Strategic Plan.
Person County Overview:
3. Wilborn introduces Mr. Ted Abernathy, with Economic Leadership, LLC. Mr. Abernathy is a
managing partner. Mr. Abernathy is on hand to give Person County specific information out of a
cluster analysis his firm completed.
Mr. Abernathy’s presentation will be included in the minutes.
Highlights of Mr. Abernathy’s presentation:
-The economy is mixed and complicated
-GDP will slow down this year
-The country is in the biggest inflation in 40 years and the most predictable
-North Carolina is in line with the national economy
-North Carolina did slightly better on job growth than the nation
-North Carolina has hired back more people since the start of Covid than the national
average
-Demographics are easier to predict than the economy. Abernathy reviewed the
demographic changes.
-Rural populations in America continue to retract and urban populations continue to
grow
-The majority of counties losing jobs in North Carolina are rural counties
-As urban counties continue to grow, growth will move to surrounding counties, Person
County is one of those counties.
-The crisis in America now is workforce
-There are millions more job openings than people
-Population growth is lower now than ever before
-More people dropped out of the labor market during Covid than ever before.
Factors include the gains in the stock market, people flipping their homes, and the cost
of child/elderly care being up.
-Self Employment has grown
-Mental and physical health has become a large issue during Covid, which has caused a
reduction in labor force
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EDC and PCBIC Planning Session Minutes for January 25, 2022
-How to attract the labor pool becomes the top economic development issue
-Real Estate did better than people expected during Covid
-There is very little available industrial real estate, the demand surpassed the supply
-The housing market grew exponentially
-North Carolina housing prices went up over 20% from 2020-2021
-Business growth has been high
-Small business growth is expected to be high in Person County
-Manufacturing grew in North Carolina in the last year, the largest growth was in
transportation
-North Carolina is ranked one of the best places to be for business
-North Carolina is a top 5 state for manufacturing
-Between 2000-2009 Person County dropped over 2000 manufacturing jobs
-Person County pandemic employment was reviewed by industry
-Person County needs to focus on bringing residents into the county
-Site selectors are looking at the availability of skilled labor first, before any other factors
-Strategic planning needs to be realistic
Mr. Abernathy opens the floor to questions and comments.
Wilborn begins with noting the fastest way to grow your workforce is grow your population. She asked
that Mr. Abernathy share more about his article on what West Virginia is doing to grow their
population. Abernathy begins by explaining that states are offering incentives to move to their state.
Also, states need to look at retaining their young population and bringing them back to the county
after they have completed any training.
Abernathy explains he does not do site selection, but does assist companies in looking for locations to
expand. He notes that companies look at various factors. John Nelms with Duke remarks all projects are
different in what they are looking for.
Lockhart questions what is the silver bullet, is it the service industry? Abernathy explains people are
going to try to decrease the need for supply of labor. Second, will be a more increased remote worker
focus and locational need. Retail will also decrease.
Lockhart asks what data sources Abernathy uses, Abernathy notes he uses multiple data sources.
Allen questions how the metro areas are scored. Abernathy explains they take multiple data points that
are reviewed yearly. Raleigh scored one and Durham scored eight. Both are good news for Person
County.
Reynolds questions what is the biggest mistake rural counties have made in the last five years?
Abernathy states, first is being unrealistic and spending so much time looking for the next big thing,
they forget about the companies they have. If your local company is updating equipment, it is as good
as a ribbon cutting. Second, would be housing. Rural counties have very little housing and little child
care capacity.
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EDC and PCBIC Planning Session Minutes for January 25, 2022
The Honorable Gordon Powell states he believes there is a certain group or population that is not being
realistic on what we can do. For example, Greensboro Randolph megasite has a larger pool of workforce
than we do in Person County. That site also has a larger amount of housing availability. Nelms with
Duke explains the Greensboro Randolph site has done a lot of vetting in an effort to fix any problem
that comes up. Powell also explains investors have put huge investments in that site, where the PCMP
has been funded by tax dollars. Abernathy explains demand is up for property. The location of the
PCMP is away from a main traffic thoroughfare.
Danny Talbert questions how important is a major highway? Abernathy notes it is top five.
Sherry Wilborn takes the opportunity to invite Blake Hall, Nate Groover, and Joe Hines from Timmons to
the table. Blake Hall has worked with Sherry since the beginning of the PCMP, Nate Groover just came
to Timmons from Economic Development Partnership of North Carolina working on projects from the
state. They begin by noting the PCMP is unique because of the electrical capacity to the site. John
Nelms explains not all projects will need that large capacity. Joe Hines explains more about data centers
and their needs. He also reviews multiple other mega sites and their populations. Hines thinks a fam
tour with site selectors to the PCMP could be an option to get interest in the PCMP.
Wilborn explains to the board that Sallie Vaughn has created a tool to show the projects that the PCMP
was in contention for and was not chosen, which the board would review after the break.
Break started at 1:25 pm
Back from break at 1:36 pm
Funding Opportunities:
4. Wilborn moves this item until after the site and infrastructure discussion.
Wilborn begins by reviewing funding opportunities, including Golden Leaf-Site Program, North
Carolina Railroad, NC Cooperative Ready Sites program, Duke Site Readiness Program, United
States Department of Agriculture Rural Economic Development Loan Program, and the
American Rescue Plan.
Wilborn informs the board this is budget season, it is her intent to put in the normal request of
$250k in the budget for Economic Development. She is looking to the board for any CIP
requests or other budget items.
If the Commissioners grant the $250k, that would bring the Economic Catalyst fund to 1.2
million dollars.
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EDC and PCBIC Planning Session Minutes for January 25, 2022
The four items that the board can look at for grants are the PCMP, North Park, Southside
Development, or rail.
Wilborn returns to Site and Infrastructure Development portion of the planning session,
requesting Andy Oakley or Tommy Warren give an update on the Western Sewer Project.
Site and Infrastructure Development Discussion:
5. As Wilborn shared at the last EDC meeting, the PCMP has gotten looks from large projects. The
main feedback that she has received is that the site is too raw and too remote. Vaughn is on
hand to present the tool she has developed. PCMP is a site that has been designed for semi-
conductors. It has a large power source, water, but no rail service. It is not to say we can’t use it
for other things that it was designed for. The projects that the Wilborn received RFIs on were not
campus style. They were looking for a rectangular shape for a large footprint.
The Greensboro Randolph site has clear boundaries and no impediments.
Some projects will not build on fill dirt. The PCMP will require more clearing and grading versus
other mega parks.
The flood plain also provides another hindrance.
A semiconductor project has required bedrock which would cause the site to be cut down 120’.
Nate Groover notes all site selectors are different. He states the feedback he has received on the
PCMP was the issue with labor force and connectivity to transportation hubs.
If you look at residential numbers around mega sites, there are greater residential numbers
around other mega sites. Wilborn explains you have to look at, can you build your project on a
site before you decide if you want to build it there.
EV and Battery projects have required rail. Other mega sites already have rail. PCMP does have a
preliminary plan, but that will add additional time and expense
Vaughn used her GIS tool to show the distance from other mega sites to interstate and rail. The
sites she covered had interstate/large highway and rail in closer proximity than PCMP.
The Person County Mega Site is not currently zoned industrial which is something site selectors
see.
Wilborn explains the Person County Mega Site is a good site. She reminds the board 10 years is
the usual amount of time for a Mega Site to become occupied. Three or four years from now
industrial sites are going to be getting tighter and Person County population will have grown,
including workforce.
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EDC and PCBIC Planning Session Minutes for January 25, 2022
Wilborn points out our site is still owned by a private owner, you cannot get grant funds on
privately-owned property; therefore, maintaining the option is of benefit to the property owners,
as well. The Honorable Gordon Powell notes all work done to the site has been county funded.
He also states the county has not reduced interest in the site. The county has continued to
advertise and work with Timmons. The county has been paying for that work. The site is
advertised for over 1300 acres, there is 900 usable acres, and 168 acres permitted by the US
Army Corps of Engineers. If a client needs more than the permitted acres, Wilborn explains the
companies site plan would then go to the Army Corps of Engineers to modify the permit.
Wilborn notes because there is already a permit in place, the time to get the modified permit
will be less. The process should take 6 months verses two years.
Wilborn explains Covid has caused more projects to come in and the Economic Development
Department has not let up. Whenever a project comes in, Blake Hall, Tommy Warren, and John
Nelms often sit in on the calls. Every project has to be examined separately, there is no database
to pull information from.
Mr. Perry questions should we be doing more targeted Research and Development for
industries? Wilborn explains she is looking at all industries. She will be attending a site selector
event in the coming days. Also, when site developers look they look at things like residential
development. For example, the Chatham Park development is slated to have 22,000 homes in
the coming years. These are all important factors. Nate Grover explains educational material is
provided to site selectors.
Reynolds questions Timmons about what industries do they see working well on the site?
Timmons explains data centers would be a good fit. Semiconductors and Electric Vehicles would
be good if the site was more rectangular.
At this time Wilborn returns to Funding Opportunities.
The Western Sewer project is in the land acquisition phase. Construction drawings are about
95% complete. Financing is the next big piece of the project. Brooks Lockhart explains
engineering firms are speculating there could be $15 million in American Rescue infrastructure
funding coming. However, the Western Sewer Project originally was slated to cost $15 million.
However, with inflation, that number has risen. This means the City of Roxboro will need to find
additional funding. This could mean getting more loans or grants. The financial department is
looking to see if the City of Roxboro can take on those debts. This project will double the
capacity on the South Side of Person County.
Break started at 2:54 pm
Back from break at 3:05 pm
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EDC and PCBIC Planning Session Minutes for January 25, 2022
Closed Session:
6. Chairman Allen requested a motion to enter into Closed Session pursuant to NC General Statues
143-318.11(a)(5)
A motion was made, seconded and unanimously passed to go into closed session.
Motion: The Honorable Merilyn Newell Second: Dale Reynolds
Closed Session was entered into at 3:06 pm
A motion was made, seconded and unanimously passed to come out of closed session.
Motion: Donald Long Second: Dale Reynolds
Closed Session was exited at 4:13 pm
Wilborn read the following motions:
Request a motion to include 1 million dollars in the county’s CIP fund for the Western
Interceptor Project.
A motion was made, seconded and unanimously passed to include 1 million dollars in the
county’s CIP fund for the Western Interceptor Project.
Motion: Dale Reynolds Second: Donald Long
Request a motion to engage Mr. Ted Abernathy for the next strategic plan according to the
proposal the board received.
A motion was made, seconded and unanimously passed to engage Mr. Ted Abernathy for the
next strategic plan according to the proposal the board received.
Motion: Dale Reynolds Second: The Honorable Merilyn Newell
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EDC and PCBIC Planning Session Minutes for January 25, 2022
Request a motion to authorize Sherry Wilborn to move forward with the grant program through
Golden Leaf for the North Park Site.
A motion was made, seconded and unanimously passed to move forward with the grant
program through Golden Leaf for the North Park Site.
Motion: Dale Reynolds Second: Danny Talbert
Conclude:
7. The planning session was concluded at 4:20 pm.
_____________________________________ ______________________________________
Date Approved Secretary
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EDC/PCBIC Joint Planning SessionJanuary 25, 2022
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Thank You!!
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2019 Strategic Plan Review
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2019-2022 Strategic Plan Review
2018 SWOT Analysis Vision Statement
“Person County Economic Development Commission is working to create
opportunities for families and businesses to prosper and compete in a global
economy.”
2019 Key Areas of Focus (Reviewed in August at Annual Meeting)
• Education and Workforce Development
• Marketing and Recruitment
• Product Development
• Business Support
• Finding Funding Sources
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2019-2022 Strategic Plan Review
2019 Key Areas of Focus
• Education and Workforce Development
Implemented the 6-14 Pipeline Program, a 3-way partnership between
PCS, PCC, and PCEDC, introducing students to the needs of business and
industry beginning in 6th grade in order to create a pipeline of skilled
workers for existing and target sector industries
• Marketing and Recruitment
Developed and launched a new website with new imagery, branding,
videos, testimonials, and interactive tools; advertised in numerous trade
publications, attended trade conferences, participated in site selection
events and cooperative marketing with state and regional partners,
responded to heightened project activity, held a groundbreaking
ceremony at Raleigh Regional, and supported the successful expansion of
POLYWOOD, with 300 additional jobs pledged
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2019-2022 Strategic Plan Review
2019 Key Areas of Focus
• Product Development
Completed a waterline to the Person County Mega Park, supported
engineering costs for the Western Sewer expansion through a
request to the BOC, performed due diligence studies on a county-
owned parcel and obtained permits for clearing, grading, and
driveway
• Business Support
Created the COVID Pivot Loan program, assisted with essential
industry recognition to keep operations running, facilitated
workforce vaccinations, as well as apprenticeship program
discussions
• Finding Funding Sources
Received Dedicated Funding from the BOC for ongoing ED projects
Grant Funds from the NCDOC RIA
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Guest Presentation by Ted Abernathy, Economic Leadership, LLC
Ted has 35 years of experience in directing economic
development and workforce development programs. He
was VP of the Research Triangle Regional Partnership for
8 years. He and his team now provide consultancy all
across the country, including strategic planning for
numerous counties and regional groups in NC.
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Funding Opportunities
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Funding Opportunities
Golden LEAF –SITE Program
•SITE Program – Identification support to identify potential industrial sites in
communities that do not currently have quality industrial sites to market. (technical
services)
•SITE Program –Due diligence funding to complete eligible due diligence activities
such as environmental assessments, archaeological analyses, and mapping. (up to
$50,000)
•SITE Program – Development funding for public infrastructure and, for publicly owned
sites, clearing and rough grading, to benefit sites that have completed the due
diligence necessary to demonstrate that the site is suitable for development. (up to
$1M)
APPLICATION NOW OPEN –DEADLINE TO APPLY IS NOON ON MARCH 10TH
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Funding Opportunities
NCRR
Through Build Ready Sites, NCRR will partner with communities, railroads and other
economic development allies across the state to provide matching funds for site needs,
acting as a catalyst to advance more rail-served sites to a development-ready position.
The Build Ready Sites initiative will target rail-served sites ranging in size from 50-100
acres.
Examples of eligible funding uses include land preparation such as clearing or grading,
utility extensions, access roads and construction of speculative buildings.
Up to $500,000 or 60% of total proposed project cost, whichever is less.
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Funding Opportunities
Utilities
•NC Cooperatives has a program called the Cooperative Ready Sites program
•This is a type of site certification for sites located in their service area.
•Once a site is approved into the program, NCEC will pay 75% of the cost of site
certification for member cooperatives (or up to $20,000). The community
(cooperative, economic development organization, local government, landowner,
etc.) will pay the remaining 25%.
•Benefits of becoming a Cooperative Ready Site:
•Special recognition on the NC Electric Cooperatives website and in marketing
materials.
•Marketing and promotion by NC Electric Cooperatives’ economic development
partners.
•Research and analysis to share with prospective companies.
•Increased interest from companies searching for sites for new locations and
expansions.
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Funding Opportunities
ARP, Infrastructure Bill
•Still awaiting guidance, recommendation is to have a plan and show how the request
fits into the plan; projects of greatest impact preferred
Utilities Cont’d
•Duke Site Readiness Program –under revision, more to come
•USDA REDL (through NC Elec Coops)
10-year, 0% interest loan –up to $1.5M
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Site and Infrastructure Development
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Infrastructure Development
Western Sewer Expansion
•Already underway
•What support is needed?
•What areas are affected?
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Site Development
North Park
Person County Mega Park
Southside Development –Strategic Plan - TBD
Rail/Other –Funding Opportunities, Project Needs - TBD
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New Housing Projects
Moore County The Southern Pines project, located
near where the town borders Pinehurst and Aberdeen,
calls for up to 650 residential units, which could be a
mix of multi-family, townhomes and single-family
homes,
Heading south to Chatham County, the 44-acre mixed use development
Mosaic at Chatham Park is billed as the commercial front door to the
enormous Chatham Park development slated to have 22,000 homes and
22 million square feet of commercial space at full build out. Mosaic saw
its first tenant open in 2021.
Clayton Copper District
up to 480 apartments/condominiums
up to 140 single family/townhome lots
This 150-acre Ashby Village residential development in Sanford will kick
off construction this year. Preliminary plans call for a maximum of 350
multi-family units –apartments and townhomes –in one area of the
development, space for a maximum of 250 lots for single-family detached
homes, and another area that has space for up to 200 townhomes. In
total, that means up to 800 residences could be built on the land.
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Closed Session
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Person County’s Economy
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Record
business
formations
Record
corporate
profits
More jobs
than we can
fill
Record
household
wealth &
savings
Rising wages
Record
inflation
(40/Yr )
Record trade
deficits
Record
national debt
Record
inequity
Record low
birth rates
Low labor
force
participation
How is the US
Economy?
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Small Business Real
Estate
& Analytics
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Source:Wells Fargo 2022 Annual Outlook
U.S. Real GPD Growth
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Source: Trading Economics
Corporate profits in the United States
jumped 9.7 percent to a record high of USD
2.42 trillion in the second quarter of 2021,
following a 4.5 percent rise in the previous
period.
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Too many dollars chasing too few goods
United States Inflation Rate (Past 25 Years)
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Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics
Personal Savings Rate
Excess saving is being reduced by
households-$2.6 trillion in late
spring. Still well over a $Trillion
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67% of Manufacturers say
they cannot meet demand
due to lack of inputs, 66% are
having trouble finding labor, &
50% experiencing shipping
delays 34 of 77
Percentage Annual Job Change
1990-2020
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020United States North Carolina
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
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All States Since Start of Covid
Total Non-Farm Employment Percentage Change Feb 2020 to Nov 2021
-1.6%
-6.0%
0.2%
-0.9%
-4.7%
-1.9%
-4.3%
-3.3%
-5.7%
-1.2%-…
-12.8%
1.9%
-4.3%
-2.1%
-3.2%-2.6%
-3.4%
-6.4%
-4.2%
-3.0%
-4.6%-4.8%
-3.7%
-1.5%
-2.2%
-0.5%
-0.9%
-5.2%
-3.3%-4.0%
-4.7%
-8.0%
-1.6%
-4.3%-3.9%
-3.0%
-3.8%
-5.1%-4.9%
-1.7%-1.2%-1.4%
0.2%
3.9%
-5.9%
-2.9%
-1.8%
-3.6%-3.5%
-4.7%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyomingSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Now 84% of the Way Back Nationally
NC 88% Back
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2.1%
19.5%
2.4%
4.3%
1.7%
3.0%
2.9%
2.2%
4.5%
0%5%10%15%20%25%
Government
Leisure & Hospitality
Education & Health
Services
Professional & Technical
Services
Financial Activities
Trade, Transport &
Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Total
Employment Change by Sector for United States
December 2020 –December 2021
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics37 of 77
Slowing growth in US
Older
Fewer kids
More diverse
Educated women
Less marriage
Multigenerational
Unevenness
Demographics
Urban & Rural
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Population Change 2010-2020
11.4%
14.5%
9.9%
7.4%
4.6%
15.1%
-1.3%-0.9%
1.0%
-0.2%
-5.2%
-1.1%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5th District NC VA MD WV SC
Urban & Rural Population Change
Urban Rural
Source: Richmond Federal
Reserve, December 2021
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Cherokee Clay
Graham
Macon
Swain
Jackson
Haywood
Madison
Buncombe
Henderson
Tran-
sylvania
Yancey
Avery
McDowell
Rutherford
Polk
Watauga
Caldwell
Burke
Cleveland
Ashe Alleghany
Wilkes
Alex-
ander
Catawba
Lincoln
Gaston
Surry
Yadkin
Iredell
Stokes
Forsyth
Davie
Rowan
Cabarrus
Union
Rockingham
Guilford
Davidson Randolph
Stanly
Anson
Mont-
gomery Moore
Rich-
mond
Caswell Person
Chatham Wake
Lee
Warren
Franklin
Harnett
Hoke
Scot-
land
Robeson Bladen
Columbus
Brunswick
Johnston
Northampton
Halifax
Nash
Wilson
Edgecombe
Wayne
Sampson
Duplin
Pender
New
Hanover
Onslow
Jones
Lenoir
Greene
Pitt
Hertford
Gates
Bertie
Wash-
ingtonMartin
Beaufort Hyde
Tyrrell Dare
Craven Pamlico
Carteret
Growth above state average
Growing below state average
Losing Jobs
No change –fewer than 100 jobs
Source: NC Commerce D-4 QCEW
5 Year Job Growth 2015-2020North Carolina Average 3.8%
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North Carolina Job Growth
2015-2020
84%
16%
Percentage of Total Job Growth 2015-2020
Urban (6)Suburban(14)Rural (80)
From
2015-2020
Rural
Counties
lost over
13,000
jobs or 1%
of all jobs
In 2020
Urban
Counties
had 47% of
all jobs
Suburban
had 20%
Rural had
33%
Source: EMSI 2021.341 of 77
Parsing the Workforce Crisis
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Source:JOLTS via HaverAnalytics
Labor Market Flows
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U.S. Annual Population Growth
Great Depression
Soldiers come
home
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U.S. Components of Population Growth
Source:Brookings Dec 23, 202145 of 77
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Childcare Services Employment is
10.4% less than Pre-Pandemic
Large numbers of early retirements
In 2020 42 million self-
employed
Among adults not working and not
looking, 45% due to physical health, 20%
due to mental health.47 of 77
Cherokee Clay
Graham
Macon
Swain
Jackson
Haywood
Madison
Buncombe
Henderson
Tran-
sylvania
Yancey
Avery
McDowell
Rutherford
Polk
Watauga
Caldwell
Burke
Cleveland
Ashe Alleghany
Wilkes
Alex-
ander
Catawba
Lincoln
Gaston
Surry
Yadkin
Iredell
Stokes
Forsyth
Davie
Rowan
Cabarrus
Union
Rockingham
Guilford
Davidson Randolph
Stanly
Anson
Mont-
gomery Moore
Rich-
mond
Caswell Person
Chatham Wake
Lee
Warren
Franklin
Harnett
Hoke
Scot-
land
Robeson Bladen
Columbus
Brunswick
Johnston
Northampton
Halifax
Nash
Wilson
Edgecombe
Wayne
Sampson
Duplin
Pender
New
Hanover
Onslow
Jones
Lenoir
Greene
Pitt
Hertford
Gates
Bertie
Wash-
ingtonMartin
Beaufort Hyde
Tyrrell Dare
Craven Pamlico
Carteret
Growth above 5.7%
Growing below 5.7%
Losing Labor Force
PROJECTED CHANGE IN LABOR FORCE AGE POPULATION
Ages 25 –64 2020 -2030
North Carolina state average 5.7%
Source: EMSI 2021.448 of 77
Real Estate & Housing
49 of 77
Note: Retail sales includes food services.
Source:Trepp CMBS Research, January 2022
4.57%
0.52%
8.79%
1.76%2.52%
8.28%7.81%
1.14%
19.80%
2.75%2.18%
12.94%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Overall Industrial Lodging Multifamily Office Retail
percent 30 days or more
Dec-21 Dec-20
Delinquency Rate by Property Type
50 of 77
Source: Federal Housing FinanceAgency/Haver Analytics
North Carolina Housing Price Index
51 of 77
Housing Price Increase 2020Q3 to 2021Q3
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
10% to 14.9%
15% to 19.9%
Over 20%
52 of 77
Business Growth53 of 77
U.S. Business Formations
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Jan-2019Feb-2019Mar-2019Apr-2019May-2019Jun-2019Jul-2019Aug-2019Sep-2019Oct-2019Nov-2019Dec-2019Jan-2020Feb-2020Mar-2020Apr-2020May-2020Jun-2020Jul-2020Aug-2020Sep-2020Oct-2020Nov-2020Dec-2020Jan-2021Feb-2021Mar-2021Apr-2021May-2021Jun-2021Jul-2021Aug-2021Sep-2021Oct-2021Nov-2021Source: US Census Bureau; Business Formation Statistics54 of 77
Manufacturing
Resurgence
55 of 77
Percentage Change Manufacturing Jobs 2010-2021
Source: EMSI 2021.3
U.S. 5.4%
56 of 77
Note: Retail sales includes food services.
15.0%13.7%
9.5%11.4%
7.4%7.6%
2.0%
-2.7%
8.1%
21.0%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2010-2021
Growth in Manufacturing Jobs
Source:EMSI 2021.357 of 77
Data Analytics
Rule the World
58 of 77
Forbes CNBC CEO Magazine Business Facilities
1 North Carolina Virginia Texas Texas
2 Texas North Carolina Florida Virginia
3 Utah Utah Tennessee Tennessee
4 Virginia Texas North Carolina Alabama
5 Florida Tennessee Indiana North Carolina
6 Georgia Georgia South Carolina Indiana
7 Tennessee Minnesota Ohio Georgia
8 Washington Colorado Nevada Florida
9 Colorado Washington Georgia Utah
10 Idaho Ohio Arizona Mississippi
Virginia, Florida, Utah 3 of 4
Washington, Colorado, Indiana, Ohio 2 of 4
Latest Best States for Business Rankings
59 of 77
2021 OVERALL STATE RANKINGS
BUSINESS
CLIMATE WORKFORCE
INFRA-
STRUCTURE INNOVATION
ECONOMIC
STRENGTH
TOTAL
RANKINGS
1 Utah 3 1 5 18T 2 29
2 Idaho 7 15 7 16 7 52
3 Texas 23 13 1 13 17T 67
4T Indiana 14 14 23T 25 3 79
4T North Carolina 2 10 35 5 27 79
6 Florida 10 18T 14 8 31T 81
7 Oregon 28 36 10 4 4 82
8 Arizona 8 33 23T 7 13 84
9 Virginia 6 7 6 28 42 89
10 Nebraska 24 5 8 38T 20 95
11 Kansas 30 25 4 31 8T 98
12 Tennessee 9 28T 27T 26 10 100
13T Kentucky 19 18T 16 40 8T 101
13T North Dakota 4 6 3 42 46 101
15 South Dakota 1 9 11 43 44 108
16T New Jersey 50 21 26 9T 6 112
16T Massachusetts 38 4 45T 2 23 112
16T Maryland 39 16 13 14 30 112
19T Michigan 18 39 25 12 19 113
19T Washington 32 8 41 3 29 113
21 Wisconsin 33 12 27T 27 16 115
22T Pennsylvania 47 24 12 20 14 117
22T South Carolina 17 38 9 36 17T 117
22T Colorado 35 2 34 11 35 117
25 Alabama 25 35 19 34 5 118
26T Georgia 29 27 22 18T 25 121
26T Nevada 11 32 15 32 31T 121
28T California 49 34 38 1 1 123
28T New Mexico 12 49 2 22T 38 123
30 Ohio 20 26 40 24 15 125
31 New Hampshire 27 18T 47 9T 26 127
32 Minnesota 44 22 21 17 28 132
33 Iowa 42 17 17 30 33 139
34 Missouri 15 41 36T 15 36 143
35 Wyoming 5 3 48 49 40 145
36 Oklahoma 13 30 18 41 45 147
37 Illinois 48 42 29 21 11 151
38 Vermont 37 23 20 33 39 152
39 Montana 31 11 32 38T 48 160
40T Maine 34 31 44 35 22 166
40T Connecticut 40 28T 33 22T 43 166
42 Arkansas 21T 43 43 44 21 172
43 Delaware 36 37 31 29 41 174
44 Mississippi 16 48 39 48 24 175
45 New York 45 40 50 6 37 178
46 West Virginia 21T 47 36T 50 34 188
47 Louisiana 46 44T 49 45 12 196
48 Hawaii 26 46 42 47 50 211
49T Rhode Island 43 44T 45T 37 47 216
49T Alaska 41 50 30 46 49 216
top 15 bottom 15
Top 10 States
Manufacturing
States
1)Utah
2)Idaho
3)Texas
4)North Carolina
5)Indiana
6)Florida
7)Oregon
8)Arizona
9)Virginia
10)Nebraska 60 of 77
Top 100 Metros-Composite Index 2021(top 25 Ranked)
MSA Momentum Index
Cost and Business
Climate Index Future Index Global Index Talent Index Total Score Overall Rank
Raleigh, NC 16 1 1 20 1 39 1
Salt Lake City, UT 3 13 7 24 6 53 2
Austin, TX 6 16 2 33T 3 60 3
Seattle, WA 1 45 4 10 2 62 4
Charlotte, NC 43 4 12 9 5 73 5
Atlanta, GA 25 23 10 19 8 85 6
Dallas, TX 26 18 14 6 22 86 7
Durham, NC 36 5 21 3 25 90 8
Nashville, TN 24 12 6 47 7 96 9
Charleston, SC 12 31T 24T 17 29T 113 10
San Jose, CA 4 86 3 5 16 114 11
San Francisco, CA 5 91 13 2 4 115 12
Ogden, UT 11 10 30 54 15 120 13
Provo, UT 2 11 9 91T 9 122 14
Portland, OR 8T 77 8 21 10 124 15
Boston, MA 20 75 11 4 17 127 16
Madison, WI 30T 24 15 53 28 150 17
San Diego, CA 14 94 22 7 21 158 18T
Indianapolis, IN 61 26 16 18 37 158 18T
Orlando, FL 13 50 28 30T 39T 160 20
Houston, TX 34T 33T 52 1 44 164 21
Denver, CO 7 56 5 86 11 165 22
Cincinnati, OH 52 38T 38 12 33 173 23
Boise, ID 10 19 33 100 13 175 24
Greenville, SC 42 20 42 36 39T 179 25
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Person County
Labor Force –Population -Jobs
Source: NC Dept of Commerce D-4 & EMSI
2021.4
18,794 18,484
12,525 9,889
35,901
40,078
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Labor Force Jobs Population
+12%
-2%
-21%
62 of 77
Person County Jobs by Sector
Source: EMSI 2021.4
3,546
1,416
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans, Util Financial Activities
Prof/Business Educ/Health Leisure/Hosp Government
63 of 77
-11.8%
-7.6%
-9.8%
-39.2%
-6.6%
12.0%
-10.9%
-6.8%
-7.8%
-0.4%
-10.4%
4.4%
7.7%
19.3%
5.1%
-1.7%
15.9%
3.0%
-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%
Government
Leisure & Hospitality
Education & Health Services
Professional & Technical Services
Financial Activities
Trade, Transport & Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Total
N.C.
Person
Jobs Percentage Change by Sector for Person & NC
2016 –2021
Source: EMSI 2021.464 of 77
-14.6%
103.1%
63.7%
36.8%
26.0%
66.8%
-7.1%
3.7%
-13.8%
103.6%
-10.0%
-19.1%
76.1%
38.9%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
Change in Gross Regional Product
2001 – 2020
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis65 of 77
66 of 77
Person
County
Cluster
Map
Strong, but Declining
Weak & Declining
Strong and Growing
Weak, but Growing
67 of 77
Source: EMSI 2021.4
Top Traded Clusters by Employment in Person County
68 of 77
Pandemic Employment Impacts in Person County
Source: EMSI 2021.4
69 of 77
20.6%
16.1%
20.1%
8.8%10.5%
26.7%
6.0%
1.3%1.9%
19.1%
-4.4%
2.2%
16.5%
10.5%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%Projected Population Change 2020-2030
Source: EMSI 2021.470 of 77
13.9%
8.3%8.7%
0.6%
13.3%
15.3%
5.2%
-3.2%
-0.5%
9.7%
4.9%
-0.6%
8.6%
7.3%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%Projected Change in Jobs 2020-2030
Source: EMSI 2021.471 of 77
Business
Climate &
Costs
Infrastructure
Workforce
Site Selection Factors
1. Availability of skilled labor 91.4
2. Highway accessibility 88.7
3. Energy availability and costs 85.3
4. Quality-of-life 84.8
5. Labor costs 84.2
6. Occupancy or construction costs 80.6
7. Corporate tax rate 80.0
8. Tax exemptions 78.6
9. State and local incentives 77.2
10. Inbound/outbound shipping costs 76.8
72 of 77
Filtered by
State Factors
Filtered by
Metro or
Regional Factors
Filtered by
County or
City Factors
Site Selection Factors
1. Availability of skilled labor 91.4
2. Highway accessibility 88.7
3. Energy availability and costs 85.3
4. Quality-of-life 84.8
5. Labor costs 84.2
6. Occupancy or construction costs 80.6
7. Corporate tax rate 80.0
8. Tax exemptions 78.6
9. State and local incentives 77.2
10. Inbound/outbound shipping costs 76.8
73 of 77
Site Selection Factors
1. Availability of skilled labor 91.4
2. Highway accessibility 88.7
3. Energy availability and costs 85.3
4. Quality-of-life 84.8
5. Labor costs 84.2
6. Occupancy or construction costs 80.6
7. Corporate tax rate 80.0
8. Tax exemptions 78.6
9. State and local incentives 77.2
10. Inbound/outbound shipping costs 76.8
Metro/Regional Factors
Labor/Talent
Training Capacity
Highways and
Infrastructure
QOL
Supply Chains
Energy
Housing
Brand
74 of 77
County/City Factors
Available
buildings and
ready sites
Infrastructure
Approval
processes
Incentives
Local QOL
Staff
Site Selection Factors
1. Availability of skilled labor 91.4
2. Highway accessibility 88.7
3. Energy availability and costs 85.3
4. Quality-of-life 84.8
5. Labor costs 84.2
6. Occupancy or construction costs 80.6
7. Corporate tax rate 80.0
8. Tax exemptions 78.6
9. State and local incentives 77.2
10. Inbound/outbound shipping costs 76.8
75 of 77
Current
Reality Actions Desired
Future
To be successful, economic development plans need the
following elements:
Specific and realistic actions
Aligned stakeholder expectations
Clear implementation responsibility
Adequate resources
Measured results
Sustained leadership
Continuous assessment and adjustment
Strategic Planning
76 of 77
•Follow on twitter
@tedabernathy
•LinkedIn Ted Abernathy
77 of 77
EDC Minutes for February 22, 2022
Minutes of the PCEDC Meeting
Person County Economic Development Boardroom
303 S. Morgan St., Roxboro, NC 27573
February 22, 2022
Voting Board Members Present:
Mr. Phillip Allen-Chairman Mr. Danny Talbert
The Honorable Gordon Powell Mr. Kenneth Perry
Mr. Dale Reynolds-Vice Chairman Mr. Ernie Wood
Voting Board Members Absent:
The Honorable Merilyn Newell-Secretary
Mr. Donald Long
Ex Officios Present:
Mr. Brooks Lockhart, City Manager Ms. Heidi York, County Manager
Dr. Claudia Berryhill, Agricultural Representative
Dr. Pamela Senegal, PCC Representative
Ex Officios Absent:
Dr. Rodney Peterson, PCS Superintendent
ED Staff Present: Others Present:
Ms. Sherry Wilborn, ED Director Mr. George Willoughby
Mr. Michael Thibault, Assistant ED Director The Honorable PJ Gentry
Ms. Brandy Lynch, ED Senior Mr. Bo Freeman
Administrative Support
(Minutes)
EDC Welcome and Invocation:
1. At 4:00 p.m., Chairman Allen called the meeting to order.
2. Mr. Dale Reynolds gave the invocation.
1 of 10
EDC Minutes for February 22, 2022
Approval of the January Regular Meeting Minutes:
3. Mr. Allen requested a motion to approve the January Regular Meeting Minutes.
A motion was made seconded and unanimously passed for approval of the January 25, 2022
Regular Meeting Minutes
Motion: Ernie Wood Second: Dale Reynolds
Director’s Report:
Sherry Wilborn’s presentation will be included in the minutes.
4. Wilborn noted EDC and PCBIC are sponsoring the Industrial Relations Committee meetings in
February and March. At this time, there is not a lot of industry participation. January 2022 was
the first meeting back since Covid. In light of this, the programming has been shifted to what
would be more appropriate for the attendees, and PCC will be on hand in March to present
information on programs PCC offers for small businesses.
Wilborn traveled to Atlanta with RTRP for a site selection event. Representation from multiple
countries were on hand to meet with those travelling with the group.
Wilborn attended the EDPNC NC-100 event. EDPNC travels to different regions to meet with all
100 counties of North Carolina. Business developers got to hear from someone in every county
that participated from our region.
Vision 2022 is the regional economic development summit hosted by Kerr-Tar. This year’s event
will be in Person County at the Kirby with local representation.
Wilborn looks for direction from the board on moving forward with the business survey.
Thibault suggested the questionnaire be short and to inquire of issues businesses are struggling
with. Thibault recommended emailing him with comments and suggestions. Reynolds noted the
Roxboro Area Chamber of Commerce would be a good way to market the survey.
2 of 10
EDC Minutes for February 22, 2022
Member and Ex Officio Comments:
5. Dr. Berryhill announces that the Piedmont Farm tour would be back, which will include four
Person County farms. Dr. Berryhill provided information on the newly formed North Carolina
Spiritous Liquor Advisory Council. She also reviewed an article in the North Carolina Triangle
Business Journal on how the labor shortages for farmers in North Carolina ripples across the
economy.
The Honorable Gordon Powell reminded the board about the recent approval of funding for the
runway extension project, noting half of that funding would be coming to the county on
February 26th.
Dr. Senegal notes the Piedmont Community College Center for Educational and Agricultural
Development will break ground on the incubator over the next thirty days. Piedmont
Community College is partnering with Fayetteville Tech Community College to prepare students
for cyber security jobs. The Piedmont Community College Board of Trustees met and decided to
shift gears on the plans for the Advanced Technology Center, downsizing the project to be
similar in size to the S building that is currently on the Piedmont Community College campus.
Piedmont Community College has also filled the Career and Technical position that was left
vacant when Jody Blackwell retired.
Brooks Lockhart announced that the City Clerk retired and another Clerk will be appointed
March 8th. The new grading was completed on the uptown park area. He also noted a natural
cemetery will be located in Orange County just over the Person County line.
Heidi York informed the board that the Person County Commissioners held their annual retreat
today. Where they were informed of the CIP request from Economic Development for the
Western Interceptor project. The American Rescue Plan funding that will be coming to Person
County was reviewed with the Commissioners today along with Ms. Wilborn’s request to use
some of that funding for a speculative building.
Chairman’s Report:
6. Chairman Allen offered no report.
Next Meeting:
7. The next meeting, was announced as March 22, 2022 at 4:00 p.m. in the Person County EDC
Board Room 303 S. Morgan St. Roxboro, NC.
3 of 10
EDC Minutes for February 22, 2022
Adjournment:
8. A motion was made, seconded and unanimously passed to adjourn the meeting at
approximately 4:36 p.m.
Motion: The Honorable Gordon Powell Second: Dale Reynolds
_____________________________________ ______________________________________
Date Approved Secretary
4 of 10
EDC MeetingFebruary 22, 2022
5 of 10
Director’s Report
6 of 10
DIRECTOR’S REPORT
Updates Since January EDC Meeting
The Solar Ordinance was updated and approved with the following changes:
The Planning Board recommended:
Table 2.1 –Change “S” in the chart to “S/CD” to better reflect that it includes both a special use permit and conditional
district rezoning.
Section 2.3 –Change the title to “Height and Size Limitation” and include a “b” that reads:
B. The maximum size of a level 3 solar energy system shall not exceed three hundred (300) acres as measured
around the immediate perimeter of the panels and shall not be located within one (1) linear mile of an existing
level 3 solar energy system.
Section 3.1-E.2.c –include what PFAS means in parenthesis (Polyfluoroalkyl substances).
The Board of Commissioners incorporated the Planning Board’s recommended modifications and adopted the Solar
Ordinance with the additional modifications:
Table 2.1 was amended to prohibit level 2 and level 3 solar energy systems in the RC (Rural Conservation) and R
(Residential) zoning district.
Table 2.2 was amended to require a 200’ setback for all level 2 and level 3 solar energy systems from the property lines
and/or right-of-way lines.This setback will include area for a 150’ buffer and 50’ of open area for emergency access.
Section 2.3(b) was amended to state that the maximum size of a level 3 solar energy system shall be 100 acres.
Section 2.4(b) was amended to require a 150’ vegetative buffer around the perimeter of the solar energy system.
Section 2.6(d) was amended to require an engineer to review the decommissioning bond amount every 3 years.
7 of 10
DIRECTOR’S REPORT
Updates Since January EDC Meeting
•The Commissioners unanimously authorized moving forward with the
engagement with Economic Leadership (Ted Abernathy).
•IRC February 8 and March 8
•Atlanta
•EDPNC NC-100
•Vision 2022 – March
•Project Activity
•36 projects
•>$3.7B investment
•>14k jobs
•8 inquiries, 10 PCMP, 10 no inv, 4 NP, 4 other
8 of 10
DIRECTOR’S REPORT
Updates Since January EDC Meeting
Discussion of Moving Forward with Business Survey with EDC and Asst. Director
Who: How Broad?
How: What approach(es)?
What: What questions?
9 of 10
THANK YOU!!
10 of 10